Fannie Mae: Momentum in Consumer Housing Confidence Slows
Tuesday, July 10th, 2018
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell 1.6 points in June to 90.7 after reaching new survey highs in April and May. The decline can be attributed to decreases in four of the six HPSI components. The net share of respondents who said now is a good time to buy a home remained unchanged in June. However, the net share who reported that now is a good time to sell a home increased 1 percentage point month over month. Americans expressed a decreased sense of job security, with the net share who say they are not concerned about losing their job falling 2 percentage points this month. Additionally, the net share reporting that their income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 2 percentage points in June. Finally, the net share of consumers who said mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months fell 4 percentage point this month, while the net share who said home prices will go up in the next 12 month decreased 3 percentage points.
"After several years of steadily climbing, HPSI's slowing upward trend suggests the index may be reaching a plateau," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Tight supply and lackluster income growth continue to weigh on housing activity, and consumer expectations for home price growth over the next 12 months have moderated. However, consumers expressed increased optimism about the direction of the economy and their personal financial situations over the next 12 months, with both measures matching previous survey highs this month."
HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX – COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS
Fannie Mae's 2018 Home Purchase Sentiment Index decreased in June by 1.6 points to 90.7. The HPSI is up 2.4 points compared with the same time last year.
The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home remained unchanged at 28%.
The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell a home rose 1 percentage points to 47%, reaching a new survey high for the third straight month.
The net share of Americans who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months fell 3 percentage points from last month to 46%.
The net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 4 percentage points to -53%.
The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job fell 2 percentage points from last month's survey high to 76%.
The net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago fell 2 percentage points to 19%.